{"id":67176,"date":"2026-09-25T08:00:53","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T23:00:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/?p=67176"},"modified":"2026-09-24T22:42:40","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T13:42:40","slug":"first-decision-on-the-construction-of-chess-theory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/en\/first-chess-theory-construction-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Decisions Made in 10 Seconds the Same as Those Made in an Hour? | A Slope Engineer\u2019s Superficial Take on the \u201cFirst Chess\u201d Theory"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hello, everyone.<\/p>\n

This is Enta.<\/p>\n

Things are finally starting to get a little busy, aren't they?<\/p>\n

Somehow, it seems like the busy season is getting shorter every year...<\/p>\n

But that's beside the point.<\/p>\n

This time, we\u2019ll be talking about \u201cthe time it takes to make a decision.\u201d
\nDoes the outcome really differ between a decision made in 10 seconds and one made after an hour of careful consideration?
\nIt all started when I recalled a concept called the \u201cFirst Chess Theory,\u201d and I tried applying it to a construction site.
\nThe topic of the tilt of the \"Mago\" in the legal framework and the reference line comes up partway through, but please just think of it as one example lol.<\/p>\n

What Is First Chess Theory?<\/h2>\n

There is a saying that in a chess game, a move chosen intuitively in 5 seconds and a move chosen after 30 minutes of careful thought\u201486%\u2014will lead to the same result.
\nThis is known as the \u201cFirst Chess Theory,\u201d and it\u2019s often featured in business books and online articles as a life hack that advises, \u201cWhen in doubt, trust your first instinct.\u201d<\/p>\n

Simply put, whether you decide in 10 seconds or take an hour, the answer\u201486%\u2014remains the same.
\nThat leads to the reasoning that spending an hour agonizing over it is a waste of time, and you should just go with the answer that first pops into your head.
\nI\u2019m sure many of you have come across statements like, \u201cDon\u2019t change the answer that first came to mind during an interview,\u201d or \u201cProjects chosen based on intuition tend to get approved in the end.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even Bruce Lee said, \"Don't think, just feel!\" lol<\/p>\n

If you trace the origins of this theory, it seems to be based on research into chess, but as it\u2019s been featured in business books and self-help articles, I get the impression it\u2019s taken on a life of its own as a rather strong argument that \u201cintuition is superior.\u201d
\nI first came across this phrase in an online article, but at the time, I just thought, \u201cOh, so if I\u2019m unsure, I should just go with my gut?\u201d\u2014it was a pretty casual reaction, lol.<\/p>\n

When I first heard this story, I thought, \u201cI see\u2014this is actually pretty close to the kind of judgment made on the front lines.\u201d
\nThat's because there are quite a few situations where on-site supervisors seem to make snap decisions at a glance.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

\n

Applying This to a Construction Site | The Slope of the Frame\u2019s Mago and the Reference Line<\/h2>\n

Let's apply this to a real-world scenario.<\/p>\n

When constructing formwork, you have to decide each time which way to tilt the vertical formwork panels and where to position the single horizontal line that serves as the reference.<\/p>\n

Especially on curves or at job sites with lots of turns.
\nIn my experience, I usually set the first reference line at eye level\u2014typically around 1.5 to 1.6 meters.
\nIt\u2019s almost an instant decision\u2014rather than spending time agonizing over it, it\u2019s more like a feeling that, the moment I step onto the scene, I just know, \u201cThis is the place.\u201d<\/p>\n

Then there's the length of the hair and the overall look.<\/p>\n

\"How<\/p>\n

On the other hand, if you ask a young, novice director to make the same decision, they\u2019ll spend quite a bit of time hesitating.
\nIt\u2019s a common sight to see someone trying out different heights, stretching and releasing the string, stepping back to look at it, then going back to adjust it\u2014repeating this process until they finally settle on the position for a single string.<\/p>\n

It's one of those times when even craftsmen get frustrated, lol.<\/p>\n

What's interesting is that, whether you take a long time or a short time, the end result doesn't actually differ that much.
\nWhether it's a spot I picked in 10 seconds or one the younger guys spent 30 minutes agonizing over, in the end, they often end up being pretty close to each other.
\nIf that\u2019s the case, I feel that the idea put forward by the First Chess Theory\u2014that \u201ceven if you take your time, the outcome won\u2019t be much different\u201d\u2014applies to some extent in the legal field as well.<\/p>\n

I tried to figure out why the results are similar whether I spend a lot of time on it or not.
\nWhen a young director spends 30 minutes coming up with an answer, most of that time is actually spent checking to see if it\u2019s correct or if it\u2019s good enough.
\nOn the other hand, I think the reason I can make a decision in 10 seconds is that I\u2019m already starting from a place where I\u2019ve gone through that verification process in my head.
\nIn other words, it\u2019s just that the nature of the time spent is different; what we\u2019re actually doing hasn\u2019t really changed that much.<\/p>\n

I feel the same way in situations outside the legal framework as well.
\nFor example, when the sky starts to look ominous in the middle of a spray application, the decision to continue or stop is often made in an instant on-site.
\nWith an inexperienced foreman, it takes a while\u2014they might just stare at the sky for a bit, wait to see how things go, and then consult with the boss before making a decision, or the boss might get so fed up that he says, \u201cI\u2019m calling it a day!\u201d But a veteran foreman makes a snap decision right on the spot, saying, \u201cLet\u2019s call it a day.\u201d
\nAnd yet, when you look back on it later, the outcome isn\u2019t really that different from what someone who took their time to make a decision would have gotten.<\/p>\n

I've heard that there's not much difference in the final figure between someone who can come up with a quote in an instant and someone who spends tens of minutes grumbling over a calculator. (That's me, lol.)
\nI think similar situations often arise even in contexts that involve business judgment.<\/p>\n

\"Reinforcing<\/p>\n

\n

A point raised that we shouldn't take 86% at face value<\/h2>\n

However, I came across an article that said it\u2019s dangerous to take this \u201cFirst Chess\u201d theory at face value.
\nThis is an article written by game writer Kazunari Yonemitsu.<\/p>\n

According to this article, the source of the number \"86%\" itself is unclear.
\nApparently, even though it\u2019s often cited online, even Mr. Yonemitsu couldn\u2019t track down the original research.
\nI feel the same way about this; I got the impression that the numbers were being taken out of context.<\/p>\n

What struck me as an even more important point was that when a chess grandmaster makes a move in five seconds, it isn\u2019t the result of a sudden flash of inspiration out of nowhere, but rather builds on a vast amount of game experience and research accumulated over time.
\nIt's the same as what I said earlier about the legal framework\u2014the reason I can determine the baseline in 10 seconds is because I have experience putting together hundreds of frameworks so far. (Actually, 10 seconds is impossible, lol.)
\nIf a young, inexperienced director tried to decide in 10 seconds like that, he\u2019d probably end up drawing the line in a completely ridiculous spot.<\/p>\n

\"86%<\/p>\n

Yonemitsu also pointed out that since \u201c86% is the same,\u201d it follows that \u201c14% is different,\u201d and that the difference in ability is actually determined by that 14%.
\nThis isn't a situation where you can just rely on intuition to push through; the real value lies in the thought process required to figure out the remaining 141 TP3T, and I agree with that point.
\nIt\u2019s also important to verify that the reference line for the legal framework looks right\u2014after making a rough mark at eye level, check it with an auto-level to confirm.
\nThe process is complete only when you back up the position you chose based on intuition with numerical data.
\nIf it's just a legal framework, a quick glance should be more than enough, but since we're dealing with slopes\u2014which are a matter of public safety\u2014we really need to double-check everything.<\/p>\n

So, intuition is a tool for narrowing down possibilities, but it doesn\u2019t give you an excuse to skip checking your answers.<\/p>\n

This article really made me realize this all over again.
\nIf you take the argument that \u201cspending more time won\u2019t change the outcome\u201d at face value, it could lead to unexpected accidents on the job.
\nThat\u2019s exactly why it\u2019s important to deliberately give less experienced team members time to double-check things.<\/p>\n

In this article, Mr. Yonemitsu also cites the book *Intuition* (PHP Institute) by shogi player Yoshiharu Habu.
\nAlthough Mr. Hanyu is a shogi player rather than a chess player, he writes the following about intuition.<\/p>\n

\"Intuition doesn't really spring from nothing. It must be built up based on the experience of thinking things through and exploring various possibilities.\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

\n

The idea that it's the accumulation of experience\u2014not the length of time\u2014that matters<\/h2>\n

After thinking it through, here\u2019s what I\u2019ve come to conclude.
\nThis means that the result will remain the same\u2014whether it takes 10 seconds or an hour\u2014only if the person has already accumulated sufficient experience.
\nWhen you're still new to something, there's real value in taking the time to think things through.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not like I naturally knew how to easily set standards on the job right from the start.
\nIt means that after completing hundreds of projects and going back and forth over \"this isn't right, that isn't right\" countless times, I've finally reached the point where I can make a decision in 10 seconds.
\nIn a sense, I think the \"10 seconds\" we have now is the result of all the mistakes and corrections we've made on the job over the years.<\/p>\n

Whether it\u2019s an answer I arrived at after taking my time or one I came up with on the spot, the experiences that underlie them are the same.
\nWhen you think about it that way, I think it\u2019s a bit of a waste to simply look at the results and categorize people as having \u201cgood taste\u201d or \u201cno taste.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s exactly why I don\u2019t really like the phrase, \u201cThat person has good taste.\u201d
\nBehind all of that, there must be an absolutely enormous amount of trial and error and failure.
\nIf we dismiss it with a simple phrase like \u201cgood taste\u201d or \u201cthe talent to make decisions in an instant,\u201d I feel like we end up overlooking all the hard work that person has put in.<\/p>\n

Our technical trainees can\u2019t do anything at first, but after three years, they\u2019ve gained enough experience to know what needs to be done.
\nEven if you feel unsure about everything at first, as you gain more experience, you\u2019ll gradually be able to make decisions without hesitation.
\n\"It might look like I'm making decisions in 10 seconds now, but that's only because I've failed so many times in the past,\" he said.<\/p>\n

Conversely, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a good idea to rush young directors or artisans who are taking their time to think things through by telling them they\u2019re \u201ctoo slow.\u201d
\nThat\u2019s because that time is a series of small steps that can only be taken right now\u2014steps that will eventually be condensed into just 10 seconds.<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

\n

Ultimately, I think what underpins both a 10-second decision and a one-hour decision is the amount of experience one has accumulated.
\nIt\u2019s not that taking your time makes you great, nor does making a quick decision mean you have good taste\u2014it all comes down to how much experience you\u2019ve gained up to that point.<\/p>\n

I think the \"First Chess\" theory makes sense, as long as it's used by experienced players.
\nHowever, if you simply borrow that reasoning for your own convenience and try to rely solely on intuition to push through with everything while you\u2019re still inexperienced, you\u2019re bound to face the consequences at some point.<\/p>\n

At our worksite, we have the younger workers start by handling a large volume of work so they can develop their own standards along the way.
\nIt\u2019s not exactly \u201chaste makes waste,\u201d but I do think that, in the end, that\u2019s actually the quickest way.<\/p>\n

See you later.<\/p>\n

## Featured Image<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u2014<\/p>\n

## News reports and materials I referred to (not posted on WordPress)<\/p>\n

\u2013 Kazunari Yonemitsu, \u201cThe Lies of the \u2018First Chess Theory\u2019 That Any Gamer Will Recognize. Watch Out for People Who Tell You to \u2018Trust Your Instincts\u2019\u201d QJWeb (Quick Japan Web) https:\/\/qjweb.jp\/journal\/43347\/ (URL provided by Enta. Content verified by Claude)
\n\u2013 Yoshiharu Habu, *Intuition*, PHP Institute (PHP Shinsho; later published as part of the PHP Bunko series). The quotation uses the wording provided by Enta-san, with only one obvious typo corrected (\u201cokana neba\u201d \u2192 \u201cokane ba\u201d). The text has not been cross-checked against the original source.
\n\u2013 To check for duplication with past articles, I searched norimen.net and confirmed the following: \u201c90% of Reinforcement Frames Is About Appearance,\u201d \u201c90% of Reinforcement Frames Is About Appearance (Part 2: Horizontal Frames),\u201d \u201cGaining Experience First Leads to More Gold Later,\u201d and \u201cThe Reason for Design Methods in Empirical Techniques for Rebar Placement Is That the Arrangement Looks Neat.\u201d Since the main topics of all these articles\u2014how to hide joints, career development, and rebar layout\u2014differ from the focus of this article, I determined there is no duplication.<\/p>\n

## Handover Notes (Do not post on WordPress)<\/p>\n

\u2013 [Structural Revision] The previous version was structured around the theme of \u201cThe Tilt of the Legal Framework and How to Determine the Baseline,\u201d using First Chess Theory as supporting material; however, following Entas\u2019s suggestion, I\u2019ve reversed the primary and secondary focus. I have made the question \u201cDo decisions made in 10 seconds yield different results than those made in an hour?\u201d the main theme, and repositioned the discussion on the tilt of the legal framework and the baseline as one of the \u201canalogies\u201d used to apply this concept to a construction site. I have completely rewritten the title, the heading structure, and the introduction to the main text.
\n\u2013 Article Type: SEO article (4,000\u20136,000 characters), as specified by Mr. Enta.
\n\u2013 Regarding the quote from Yoshiharu Habu, we determined that the phrase \u201c\u84c4\u7a4d\u3055\u305b\u3066\u304a\u304b\u306a\u306d\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u201d in the original text provided by Enta was clearly a typographical error, so we corrected it to \u201c\u84c4\u7a4d\u3055\u305b\u3066\u304a\u304b\u306d\u3070\u306a\u3089\u306a\u3044\u201d before publishing. Since we have not yet verified this against the original source, we have included a disclaimer in the main text.
\n\u2013 Since the source of \u201c86%\u201d is noted as unclear even within the qjweb article, we avoided making any definitive statements in the main text and instead framed it in a tone suggesting that it is \u201coften cited.\u201d
\n\u2013 The sentence, \u201cWhether it\u2019s a spot I decided on in 10 seconds or one the younger guys spent 30 minutes agonizing over, the result ends up being pretty much the same,\u201d is written in the affirmative as a statement based on Enta-san\u2019s on-site experience. Please let me know if this doesn\u2019t match your actual experience.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hello, everyone. This is Enta. Things are finally starting to get a little busy, aren\u2019t they? It seems like the busy season gets shorter every year... But enough of that. Today, I want to talk about \u201cthe time we spend making decisions.\u201d What\u2019s the difference between a decision made in 10 seconds and one made after an hour of careful 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Highly recommended for young professionals struggling with decision-making.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/first-chess-theory-construction-decision\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/norimen.net\/first-chess-theory-construction-decision\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/first-chess-theory-construction-decision\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/749b9c910bd8ec54be8081f9b3caa8c0.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/749b9c910bd8ec54be8081f9b3caa8c0.jpg","width":600,"height":338,"caption":"10\u79d2\u30681\u6642\u9593\u306e\u5224\u65ad"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/first-chess-theory-construction-decision\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"\u30db\u30fc\u30e0","item":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"10\u79d2\u306e\u5224\u65ad\u30681\u6642\u9593\u306e\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u540c\u3058\u304b\uff5c\u30d5\u30a1\u30fc\u30b9\u30c8\u30c1\u30a7\u30b9\u7406\u8ad6\u3092\u6cd5\u9762\u5c4b\u304c\u6d45\u306f\u304b\u306b\u8003\u3048\u308b"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/#website","url":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/","name":"Shin-Ent's Slope Management Seminar","description":"For those of you who are serious about learning about slopes!","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/#organization"},"alternateName":"\u30a8\u30f3\u30bf\u306e\u30ce\u30ea\u30e1\u30f3","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Organization","Place"],"@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/#organization","name":"Shin-Ent's Slope Management Seminar","alternateName":"\u5869\u7530\u958b\u767a\u682a\u5f0f\u4f1a\u793e","url":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/","logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/first-chess-theory-construction-decision\/#local-main-organization-logo"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/first-chess-theory-construction-decision\/#local-main-organization-logo"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/norimenman","https:\/\/x.com\/norimenman","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/enta.d"],"telephone":[],"openingHoursSpecification":[{"@type":"OpeningHoursSpecification","dayOfWeek":["Monday","Tuesday","Wednesday","Thursday","Friday","Saturday","Sunday"],"opens":"09:00","closes":"17:00"}]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/#\/schema\/person\/7e507d48b040ed0f7a88ef4625070b95","name":"Entertainment","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7b9657262458e754e6e51a10396868dafe6afa60d649dffcd4d52a5fc01aaa7d?s=96&d=monsterid&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7b9657262458e754e6e51a10396868dafe6afa60d649dffcd4d52a5fc01aaa7d?s=96&d=monsterid&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/7b9657262458e754e6e51a10396868dafe6afa60d649dffcd4d52a5fc01aaa7d?s=96&d=monsterid&r=g","caption":"\u30a8\u30f3\u30bf"},"description":"After joining a major construction company specializing in slope stabilization, I went independent at the age of 32. 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