{"id":47773,"date":"2022-10-16T08:00:31","date_gmt":"2022-10-15T23:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/wordpress\/?p=47773"},"modified":"2022-10-15T20:44:13","modified_gmt":"2022-10-15T11:44:13","slug":"if-things-continue-this-way-japan-will-perish-expand-public-works-projects-and","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/norimen.net\/en\/%e3%80%8c%e3%81%93%e3%81%ae%e3%81%be%e3%81%be%e3%81%a7%e3%81%af%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e3%81%af%e6%bb%85%e3%81%b3%e3%82%8b%e3%80%8d-%e5%85%ac%e5%85%b1%e4%ba%8b%e6%a5%ad%e3%82%92%e6%8b%a1%e5%a4%a7%e3%81%97\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201dIf things continue like this, Japan will perish.\u201d Expand public works and turn the construction industry into one filled with \"money and romance\" (From the God of Construction)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"The<\/p>\n

Japan is currently losing its vitality. According to OECD statistics, Japan\u2019s real wages have remained sluggish compared to other countries, and there is no end in sight to the weak yen and rising prices. To address these challenges, rather than relying on aggressive public investment to expand domestic demand and alleviate the deflationary recession, Japan must focus on regaining its lost international competitiveness.<\/p>\n

However, even if public investment increases, the aging of the construction workforce\u2014which bears the brunt of that work\u2014remains a serious issue. While competition among industries to secure labor is inevitable, in the construction industry in particular, workers aged 50 and older account for approximately 55 percent of the workforce, while those aged 29 and younger make up only 10 percent. Securing talent through systemic reforms\u2014including ensuring appropriate wage levels\u2014is therefore an urgent priority.<\/p>\n

In light of this, we spoke with Professor Satoshi Fujii of the Graduate School of Engineering at Kyoto University\u2014who has spearheaded the \u201cnational resilience\u201d movement in Japan and advocates for expansionary fiscal policy\u2014about the nature of the challenges currently facing the Japanese economy and the role of the construction industry (Interviewer:Yuichi Sumi, President and CEO, Will of Construction Co., Ltd.<\/a>\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u201cJapan\u2019s Decline at \u201dthe World\u2019s Fastest Pace\u201d<\/h2>\n

\u89d2<\/b>\u3000Could you tell me about the challenges Japan is currently facing?<\/p>\n

Fujii<\/b>\u3000Many people don\u2019t realize this, but if you look back at history, you\u2019ll see that various nations\u2014such as Carthage and Athens\u2014have fallen. Even the Qin Dynasty and the Ming Dynasty eventually fell. So, fundamentally, nations are destined to fall. The only difference is whether their lifespan is short or long.<\/p>\n

The important thing is that we must firmly recognize the fundamental fact that \u201call nations are destined to perish.\u201d Once we do, the possibility that Japan, too, could perish naturally becomes apparent. Once we accept this, the reality that Japan has clearly already entered the process of perishing becomes painfully obvious.<\/p>\n

The philosopher Jos\u00e9 Ortega y Gasset once said, \u201cThere are essentially only two kinds of nations: those that expand their influence and those that shrink toward zero.\u201d Japan is clearly shrinking toward zero. Just recently, Elon Musk tweeted that \u201cJapan will cease to exist,\u201d and I have to admit that his intuition is correct.<\/p>\n

However, in the modern era\u2014that is, in the 21st century\u2014the concept of a \u201cnation\u2019s collapse\u201d has taken on a different form than it did up until the 20th century. Up until the 20th century, when a nation\u2019s power weakened, foreign powers would seize its territory\u2014that is, carry out military invasions\u2014in a manner that was clear to everyone. Of course, such bloody methods are still being employed in parts of Ukraine today, but these are exceptional cases, and such actions have become far less common than they once were.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, after World War II, such overt acts of aggression essentially ceased. Instead, a practice emerged in which, while ostensibly recognizing a country\u2019s sovereignty, its resources were effectively exploited in their entirety. In other words, rather than colonizing through overt military invasion, colonial rule came to be exercised by \u201clegally\u201d acquiring capital strictly in accordance with the \u201crules of capitalism.\u201d Today, companies like NEC and Toshiba are being blatantly acquired by China. Japanese mega-corporations\u2014the kind that would have been unimaginable to the average Japanese person in the 1980s and 1990s\u2014are now falling into Chinese hands. At the same time, real estate in major city centers and key tourist destinations is also being acquired by Chinese capital. In effect, we are witnessing the steady advancement of a 21st-century form of colonial rule.<\/p>\n

\"The
Yuichi Sumi, President and CEO, Will of Construction Co., Ltd.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

So, as for why this is happening, the direct cause is more than 20 years of \u201ddeflation.\u201d For macroeconomic reasons, prices fall because demand is low. As prices fall, everyone becomes poorer, and as people become poorer, demand falls further\u2014we\u2019re caught in a deflationary spiral. Japan is the only country in the world currently caught in this deflationary spiral. GDP is declining, and our growth rate is the lowest among OECD member nations. Starting salaries have also fallen to the lowest rank among developed nations. Japan is declining more than any other country. What we\u2019ve been saying for 10 or 20 years is finally starting to be echoed in public discourse; people are finally beginning to realize the fact that \u201cJapan is poor.\u201d They\u2019re realizing that Japan is completely falling apart\u2014and at the fastest pace in the world.<\/p>\n

So, why are we experiencing deflation? In a nutshell, it\u2019s because \u201cdomestic demand is low,\u201d but the direct cause is the \u201cconsumption tax hike.\u201d However, if investment were to expand sufficiently\u2014to the point of outweighing the negative effects of the consumption tax\u2014we could overcome deflation. Therefore, it could also be said that \u201cdeflation is caused by low investment.\u201d Furthermore, investment not only stimulates demand through the \u201cflow effect\u201d (as it is generally known), but the infrastructure created by that investment also revitalizes the economy through the \u201cstock effect\u201d (as it is generally known), thereby further stimulating demand.<\/p>\n

To begin with, our country is a capitalist nation. And when it comes to how capital is formed, it is formed through investment. Therefore, without investment, a capitalist nation is bound to collapse. So, why is investment in Japan so low? It\u2019s because \u201dpublic investment\u201d\u2014investment carried out by the government rather than the private sector\u2014has been sluggish.<\/p>\n

To begin with, private investment is spurred by public investment. For example, when a Shinkansen station or an expressway is built, a town develops around it. Once these towns are established, private investment takes over. For instance, buildings are constructed around Shinkansen stations, and once those buildings are up, they\u2019re equipped with electrical appliances. As electricity consumption increases as a result, investment in the power sector also expands.<\/p>\n

Therefore, in order to stimulate private investment, public investment is necessary first and foremost. And what do we call this, distinct from public investment? We call it \u201cpublic works.\u201d Japan has few public works projects\u2014in other words, \u201clittle construction\u201d\u2014which is why private investment is shrinking, demand is shrinking, deflation is setting in, and the country is hurtling headlong toward ruin. This is my final conclusion.<\/p>\n

Japan's National Resilience Policy Scores \u201d10\u201d Out of 100\u201d<\/h2>\n

\u89d2<\/b>\u3000Why is the Japanese government pursuing fiscal austerity?<\/p>\n

Fujii<\/b>\u3000There are various ways to answer this, but first of all, Article 1, Section 1 of the \u201cAct on the Establishment of the Ministry of Finance\u201d\u2014enacted when the Ministry of the Treasury was replaced by the Ministry of Finance\u2014states that \u201cthe mission of the Ministry of Finance is to ensure fiscal soundness.\u201d The Ministry of Finance has reinterpreted this \u201cfiscal soundness\u201d to mean \u201cimplementing austerity measures,\u201d and as a result, it is raising taxes while simultaneously cutting public works projects.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, in order to force cuts to public works spending, they are lobbying the mass media to promote the notion that public works are the root of all evil, thereby instilling fear in the public that \u201cif debt continues to rise at this rate, Japan will perish.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, to give a simple answer to the question, \u201cWhy does Japan practice fiscal austerity?\u201d it comes down to, \u201cBecause it\u2019s written in the Ministry of Finance Establishment Act.\u201d Since bureaucrats function as technocrats\u2014machines that adhere to the law\u2014they are earnestly, guided by their own sense of justice, simply carrying out austerity exactly as prescribed by law. Even if we present them with mountains of evidence saying, \u201cBut doing that will ruin the country!\u201d they\u2019ll just say, \u201cNo, no\u2014I\u2019m just following the law.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u89d2<\/b>\u3000So the Ministry of Finance is acting as that trigger, isn't it?<\/p>\n

Fujii<\/b>\u3000That\u2019s right. While many citizens may not be aware of this, through various research projects I\u2019ve conducted at the university, I\u2019ve uncovered the truth\u2014based on testimony from journalists and government officials\u2014that the Ministry of Finance is clearly engaging in these propaganda activities. By engaging in this kind of propaganda, the Ministry of Finance is intentionally creating a public atmosphere that suggests we must not run up debt, must not undertake public works projects, and must not expand social security.<\/p>\n

One strategy for overcoming this is to help people understand the issue from the perspective of national resilience, as I just mentioned. Another approach involves using economic theories such as Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)\u2014which clarifies that the government is the supplier of money and therefore cannot go bankrupt due to its own debt\u2014to expose the flaws in the Ministry of Finance\u2019s austerity policies. We are pursuing both of these approaches.<\/p>\n

MMT is often derided as a \u201ccrazy theory,\u201d but even without using the term \u201cMMT,\u201d there are plenty of ways to explain and prove the necessity of expansionary fiscal policy. In any case, the Bank of Japan can print money however it likes. It\u2019s kind of like AKB48\u2019s handshake tickets. As Mr. Abe said, the Bank of Japan is effectively a subsidiary of the government, so it can create as much money as it wants. To put it simply, this is what we mean when we say, \u201cThe government has the power to issue currency.\u201d<\/p>\n

Of course, there are those who believe that \u201cthe Bank of Japan is independent\u201d and refuse to acknowledge its authority to issue currency or its status as a subsidiary of the government. However, even if we were to accept everything they say, virtually no one can deny that the Bank of Japan is, in economic terms, the \u201clender of last resort\u201d for the government. Therefore, the Bank of Japan bears the obligation to lend money to the government whenever it finds itself in trouble. For example, if a company had a bank behind it that would never let it down no matter what happened, it could take on a considerable amount of debt, right? The government is in exactly the same situation.<\/p>\n

So, no one can deny that the Japanese government\u2014backed by the Bank of Japan, the most powerful bank in the country, which even holds what is essentially the authority to issue currency\u2014will not go bankrupt easily, and that is why it can pursue bold fiscal policies. So, I just hope people will understand that point.<\/p>\n

However, even without bringing up MMT or any of the above arguments, it goes without saying that if we don\u2019t invest, the economy will naturally decline. After all, companies like Toyota, Panasonic, Tesla, and Amazon wouldn\u2019t grow if they stopped investing. Similarly, since our country will also fall into decline if we don\u2019t invest, we can advocate for expansionary fiscal policy based on a \u201cbusiness-oriented\u201d explanation\u2014namely, that spending money now is necessary to ensure fiscal soundness.<\/p>\n

In any case, given the current deflationary environment with a shortage of currency, it\u2019s a self-evident fact\u2014one that no one can deny\u2014that someone needs to increase the money supply. So, when it comes to who should supply it, the government is the one that should do so. By undertaking public works projects, the money supply will increase, making it possible to shift from deflation to inflation, while also improving living conditions and boosting industrial competitiveness. That is why public investment possesses tremendous power\u2014it strengthens infrastructure while simultaneously expanding domestic demand, killing two birds with one stone.<\/p>\n

Of course, if we implement a consumption tax cut alongside public works projects, Japan\u2019s growth will become even more assured.<\/p>\n

\u89d2<\/b>\u3000What kind of reforms do you think should be implemented to create a trend toward promoting public investment?<\/p>\n

Fujii<\/b>\u3000I really think this is why we needed a politician like Mr. Abe. He talked about \u201cAbenomics\u201d and \u201cnational resilience,\u201d didn\u2019t he? While many people might oppose the idea of \u201cexpanding public works,\u201d almost no one would object to the idea of \u201cmaking our nation more resilient.\u201d Isn\u2019t that obvious, even just looking at this year alone? Flash floods and earthquakes are occurring all over the country. And typhoons are getting unbelievably huge, aren\u2019t they? That\u2019s why the idea that we must make our nation more resilient in the face of these natural disasters is surely shared by many citizens.<\/p>\n

And, of course, if this kind of resilience-building is necessary, it follows that we must allocate a sufficient budget for it\u2014which is precisely what Mr. Abe was attempting to do through \u201cAbenomics,\u201d which included national resilience-building. Of course, it would be ideal if there were another politician\u2014not necessarily Mr. Abe\u2014who could tackle this with genuine commitment, but at least as of today, Mr. Abe was the politician with the greatest capacity to do so. The fact that he was cut down by a bullet is a devastating loss for Japan. My honest impression is that this has pushed Japan\u2014which was already in a dire situation\u2014into an even more difficult predicament.<\/p>\n

\u89d2<\/b>\u3000How do you evaluate the government\u2019s \u201cNational Resilience Policy\u201d?<\/p>\n

Fujii<\/b>\u3000Discussions on the National Resilience Plan have been ongoing in the committee that I chaired. However, having served for 10 years, I have now stepped down upon reaching the end of my term. Over the past decade, the plan has, to some extent\u2014albeit gradually\u2014been moving in the direction of expansion.<\/p>\n

However, I had been arguing\u2014even before the Abe administration took office\u2014that we should spend about 200 trillion yen over the course of 10 years. Judging by that standard, the efforts made over the past decade would score about 10 out of 100\u2026 In fact, the net increase in the budget has been at most about 1 to 2 trillion yen per year, so in terms of budget size, I have to say that progress has been less than 10 points out of 10 compared to our ideal level.<\/p>\n

Still, at this slow pace, we\u2019ll definitely never make it in time\u2026 Since we haven\u2019t managed to escape deflation and private investment isn\u2019t picking up, the damage from major disasters in Japan is likely to be devastating. We really need to take more fundamental steps to strengthen our preparedness. Well, I suppose it\u2019s better that we\u2019re scoring 5 or 10 points rather than 0, but we\u2019re still a long way from a passing grade. It\u2019s a shame.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The God of Construction<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Japan is currently losing its vitality. According to OECD statistics, Japan\u2019s real wages have remained sluggish compared to other countries, and there is no end in sight to the weak yen and rising prices. To address these challenges, rather than expanding domestic demand and alleviating the deflationary recession through aggressive public investment, we must regain our lost international competitiveness\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1231],"tags":[1246],"class_list":["post-47773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1231","tag-1246"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u300c\u3053\u306e\u307e\u307e\u3067\u306f\u65e5\u672c\u306f\u6ec5\u3073\u308b\u300d 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